The fertility rate in the sum of our country should be 1.8

The fertility rate in the sum of our country should be 1.8
The fertility rate in the sum of our country should be 1.8
It is reported ' Reporter Hu DeRong) How many children each average married couple in China are given birth to, can have can already avoid the fast senilization of population, can reduce the total amount of population in the future? Social development and public policy dean of Fudan University, public management and public policy national innovative base director Professor Peng XiZhe issued summarizing thinking on latest Science, will the intersection of total and fertility rate maintain 1.8 level at, can realize of our country population and social economy and the coordinating proportionally for a long time of environmental resources, prevent too fast senilization process and population total amount from dropping rapidly. This summarizes the question as " past and future challenge for change of population of China ". It is introduced, according to the demographic law, population's total fertility rate is that 2.1 is the rational replacement level, namely each average married couple in the whole world bear 2.1 children. The total fertility rate of developed countries such as Britain, Germany,etc. has been in about 0.8 all the time, the social senilization question is very outstanding. On the contrary, the fertility rate of the sum of the population of most developing countries is far higher than 2.1. Peng XiZhe thinks, because of carrying out the child-bearing policy of the plan, the population of China is though because of " population inertia " And been increasing fast all the time, but population's total fertility rate has already been reduced greatly. The sixth census result in our country reveals, population's total fertility rate has already been dropped to 1.6~1.7. Especially the coastal area, the fertility rate of the sum of the population has already been dropped to 0.8~0.9. But under different population policy and assumption situation of birth level, the difference that future of China's population total amount changes is enormous, the population of peak value is 1,350 million to 1,600 million, there is prominent uncertainty. But the senilization process will be different to some extent because of different population policy bearing the behavior different from people, the trend of Chinese population's whole senilization is irreversible.


|